Shifting Winds – Trump Gains Edge Over Biden Following First Presidential Debate of 2024

Let’s be honest. Even my friends who are Democrats are having a hard time finding their own friends that plan on voting for Biden .November is set to be one of the biggest landslides in all history .

Following the initial presidential debate of 2024, momentum has shifted toward Donald Trump, who now leads Joe Biden by three points in key battleground states and by two points on a national level. This change reflects a significant enthusiasm gap, with Republicans showing a higher likelihood of voting than Democrats.

In a landscape marked by entrenched partisanship, the staunch loyalty of supporters for both Biden and Trump remains unchanged; more than 90% of each candidate’s backers are unwilling to consider switching their allegiance. This loyalty has kept the electoral landscape relatively stable, despite shifts caused by Trump’s conviction of felonies in New York earlier in June, which did not significantly impact his electoral prospects.

Currently, Trump appears to have an Electoral College advantage. A noticeable decline in enthusiasm among Biden’s 2020 supporters, half of whom believe he should not seek reelection, compounds this challenge for Biden. This sentiment reduces their likelihood to vote and increases the chances they might support another candidate, be it Trump or a third-party option.

Post-debate, Republicans are invigorated, with many expressing increased likelihood of voting. Independents remain a closely contested group, but Trump has made slight gains with them.

Nationally, Republicans also demonstrate a greater commitment to vote in 2024 compared to Democrats, solidifying Trump’s advantage in battleground states with likely voters. The inclusion of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West in the polls further extends Trump’s lead over Biden to four points. Kennedy attracts support from both major candidates, but Biden loses slightly more to Stein and West.

Voter concerns over the candidates’ ages also influence the dynamics, with Biden gaining among those who view age as an issue for both candidates. However, Biden faces a significant deficit among voters concerned solely with his age. Recent polling reveals that a substantial majority believe Biden lacks the cognitive health necessary for the presidency and should not be running, a sentiment that persists even though it has slightly softened following pushback from his campaign.

On personal qualities, Trump is perceived as more competent, tough, and focused, while Biden is seen as more compassionate. This perception battle though is evolving more and more toward Trump, as his style has changed of late, to a less combative and more responsive candidate. He knows as well that the election is his to lose.

Major Points

  • Donald Trump has gained a slight lead over Joe Biden following the first presidential debate of 2024, with a 3-point advantage in battleground states and a 2-point lead nationally.
  • Voter enthusiasm is higher among Republicans, with a significant number indicating a higher likelihood of voting compared to Democrats.
  • Over 90% of both Biden and Trump supporters remain firmly loyal, unwilling to consider the opposing candidate, indicating a deeply polarized electorate.
  • Third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West in the race potentially erode Biden’s support more than Trump’s, widening Trump’s lead.
  • Concerns about Biden’s age and cognitive health are significant among voters, with many feeling he should not run for re-election, impacting his perceived competence compared to Trump.

Conner T – Reprinted with permission of Whatfinger News

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